In a chat with, Kunj Bansal, ED & CIO, Centrum Management, says going forward, the will look beyond a very short term impact of the sentiment and all other things will focus on clearly the expected economic and commercial event. Edited excerpts: Do you agree that whatever the election outcome may be, it is at best going to be just a very near term event and what the market should focus on perhaps are crucial things like the advance tax numbers because that is going to give you a better sense of how the health of balance sheets across companies are improving? I am certainly not a political analyst and it would not be possible for me to say what happens but the market has certain expectations. If the current coalition loses, then it will have a negative impact very clearly and if the current coalition wins with the majority which is more than what is expected, then also market will have a positive. In the third case, which is the results in line with the expectation, then it will be neutral to the market. Going forward, the market will look beyond a very short term impact of the sentiment and all other things will focus on clearly the expected economic and commercial event.

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That will be the December quarter result season which we will start having very soon and the budget which also again is not more than one and a quarter month ahead from now. That will be the event to be watched out for. Short-term impact will certainly be there.

It is too early to say but what is it that you are expecting from the next month? Is there any sector, stock in particular where you think that there could be scope for an earnings revival? We had some trends in the September quarter keeping in mind the fact that September quarter results had an impact of restocking post the destocking which had happened in the June quarter. Now if we look at some of the sectors which keep giving monthly numbers, then we can draw some inferences. Let us also keep in mind that the December quarter numbers will be on the low base of last year December which had huge impact of. Keeping these things in mind, we should be able to see good earnings growth from automobile sector. In the pharma sector, domestic sales should see earnings growth in the pharma sector, export sales is still not clear.

The third sector that we should see improved if not running, certainly margin improvement is textiles for almost two to three quarters the prices had been going up which have now started softening for last two, two-and-a-half months. We should see a margin improvement there. So, these are some of the spaces. Let us keep in mind that there has been a correction in terms of price movements or in terms of valuations. These are some of the areas where we could clearly see some investment opportunities arising certainly for the medium-term investors but even for the short-term investors or traders with obviously the short-term risk being kept in mind.

Do you think the party will continue for next six months for? As of now, if I look at the factors surrounding the various commodity spaces, it looks like the tailwinds will continue to support the commodity prices moving upwards and to that extent, we should continue to benefit. The metals in the short term could continue to be a winner and that is where the short-term traders can continue to have positive positions.

In fact, irrespective as you rightly mentioned that the institutional investors whether invest or not or look at not or go right in timing the commodity investments or not, within the Indian context cement as a commodity is one sector which has given consistent returns over a period of time. Of course, there are periods of underperformances but those are relatively far and few and shorter term in between. So, that is one space which irrespective of all other commodities will continue to do well. On the other side, oil as a space is something we should watch out for.

We have had significant returns coming in from oil refining and marketing over last two and a half years. There we can possibly see an underperformance coming in and with the crude price rise whether the and oil and these exploration companies will come back in lime light or not, I do not know. But coming back, cement as a pack is something which certainly can continue to do well. Recently, we also saw the overhang of petcoke usage going away so that was positive on the sector.